Miguel Díaz-Canel, who replaced Fidel’s brother, Raúl, as Cuba’s president two years ago, admitted this month that social distancing has been hard to impose and complained of the “indiscipline and irresponsibility” of some Cubans.So covid-19 poses a severe test, just as it does elsewhere in Latin America.
Cuba will continue to depend upon Venezuelan oil and looking for every possible way to sidestep US sanctions, because they are paying the oil with medical services.The government has to stop accommodating the state-led business sector which it continues to subsidize, which only survives thanks to the official overvalued exchange rate (both for the Cuban peso and Convertible peso, CUC), which continues to employ a significant part of the workforce, unproductively.The problem lies in the fact that the Cuban economy has spent the last two decades focusing on a model of exporting services, especially medical services, and tourism, to try and insert the national economy within the global market.The Cuban government’s wager on tourism today seems to make perfect sense. In any case, an investor’s basic calculation will always be whether the risk is worth future profits.Alongside tourism, another alternative for economic growth seems to lie in the reorganization of national industry and a more efficient placement of human capital.
Nevertheless, we have to wait for Cuba’s Office of Statistics and Information to publish data at the end of the year, which have surprised us more than once with figures that are hard to get our heads around.Promoting foreign investment is still important, but increased risks exist after the waiver on Title III of the Helms-Burton Act was lifted must be overcome. They can’t tell which state companies are really profitable and worth fighting for and which ones are losing money and need to be closed.Financial statements in the state sector have been distorted for thirty years as a result of the overvalued exchange rate of the Cuban peso, and of the CUC in recent years too. The government prepared for the virus as early as January. It added used cars earlier this year.There are currently two currencies, the peso and the convertible peso, which is valued at 24 pesos, circulating in Cuba. Economic forecasts have become outdated in a matter of two months. It comes when Cuba’s economy was already under great strain. Cuba has opened dollar stores, dropped a tax on dollar transactions and is promising other long-awaited economic reforms as it tries to pull itself out of a deep slump, made worse by the pandemic. Copied. Nevertheless, the CUC’s departure from the economy will imply an adjustment of exchange rates, and that includes the state companies.In other words, we will see important steps in structural currency reform when the Central Bank begins to adjust the exchange rates.In order for Cuba to be able to redirect its oil imports in the short-term, it needs to draw up an agreement with other countries in which Cuban medical services are hired, which they haven’t managed to do up until now and their chances don’t look all too promising either.State retail markets operating with pesos isn’t enough, there has to be a huge exchange adjustment. Its overall score has decreased by 0.9 point due to a plunge in the score for property rights. In spite of tourism having two bad years on the island, historic records prove that it has the ability to jump back.If financial risk increases as a result of the embargo, the Cuban government will have to get to work and reduce other risks so as to ensure there are returns on foreign capital investments on the island. July 17, 2020 / 12:21 AM / a few seconds ago. 2) The rank that you see is the CIA reported rank, which may have the following issues: Changes in the continent’s political cycle have meant that Cuban medical missions have been withdrawn from Brazil, Ecuador and Bolivia.
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